You may have watched a game this season and wondered to yourself, “who is this tall new guy who shoots 3’s?” That is Patrick Baldwin Jr., the Warriors’ newest rookie who was selected with the 28th pick in the 2022 Draft. Once viewed as a high lottery pick coming out of high school, Baldwin Jr. had a rather unorthodox journey to the NBA, ultimately falling to the end of the 1st round and into the Warriors’ hands. When he is not playing with the Dubs’ G-League affiliate, the Santa Cruz Warriors, he spends most of his time during games sitting on the Warriors’ bench cheering on his teammates. In this article we will take a look at how Baldwin Jr. impacts the game, and why he deserves real rotational minutes, proving he is ready to contribute to winning now.
Let's get to know Baldwin Jr. a little better first. Born in Evanston, Illinois, he grew up in Sussex, Wisconsin, a small town just west of Milwaukee. Baldwin Jr. comes from a family of athletes: his mother, a volleyball player and his father, an accomplished basketball player, both of whom played at Northwestern University. His father, Pat Baldwin, then went on to become the head coach of UW Milwaukee, where Baldwin Jr. later went on to play, but we’ll get to that later. Let's take a look at PBJ’s up and down high school journey and how he went from having offers from colleges such as Duke, Kentucky, Michigan and UNC to ultimately staying in his hometown.
High School
Baldwin Jr. played at Hamilton High School in Sussex, where he grew up. His freshman year there, his team made it to their state tournament where they lost to Oshkosh North High School, which was led by the blossoming NBA star Tyreese Haliburton. He took a significant jump his sophomore year, as this was when he had a growth spurt. At 6’9”, he was able to average 19.0 PPG and 8 RPG, leading his team to a successful 21-5 record and ultimately winning their Greater Metro Conference title. Personal success started to rack up for Baldwin Jr. after this season, granting him a first team all conference recognition (Wisconsin Sports Network). Even more impressive, his season garnered Baldwin Jr. an offer from one of college basketball's most recognized programs, Duke University. This made him the youngest player to ever be offered a scholarship by the University. Even with this newfound success, it was Patrick’s junior season that solidified him as a consensus five-star college recruit, and potential NBA lottery level talent. His numbers took a leap in almost every category, averaging 24.2 PPG, 11 RPG, 4.2 APG and 1.7 BPG. These numbers made him the 2019-20 Gatorade Player of the Year, along with being the No. 3 recruit in the nation.
Baldwin Jr. attempts a layup during his junior year at Hamilton High (photo via: The Daily Northwestern)
During the second game of his senior year, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury, however he was still named a McDonald's All-American. While his injury had him sidelined for the remainder of his high school career, this didn’t slow down his recruiting process. At this point, PBJ’s college offer list was quite extensive. Top tier basketball programs like Duke, UNC, UCLA, USC, Michigan, LSU, Iowa, Florida, and Wisconsin all gave him offers. To play for any of these elite Power 5 programs would be most high school kids' dream, and for PBJ he had his pick of the litter. However, to the surprise of many he decided upon a team that was not a part of that list. Baldwin Jr. held a local press conference to announce his decision on May 12, 2021, that he would be staying close to home, taking his talents to the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee. The head coach at UW Milwaukee? His father, Pat Baldwin.
Baldwin Jr. sits between his mother and father as he signs his letter of intent to UWM (photo via: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
College
So how did PBJ make this decision? A surprise to many, he may have even surprised himself. The day of his announcement, he was asked exactly that. “I could see how it could be shocking to other people,” said Baldwin Jr. “But to the people who truly know me, they know where I stand and where I stand with my family.” Without a doubt, he felt like he had made the right decision; the question was, was it the RIGHT one?
With Baldwin Jr.’s high school success and the hype he carried into college, one must wonder how he ended up falling to the 28th pick in the draft. The answer is pretty simple, he simply couldn’t stay on the floor during his time at UWM. He played a total of 11 games before suffering another season-ending ankle injury, similar to the one that sidelined him at the end of his senior year in high school. And even in those 11 games, you could tell he was never 100% healthy, resulting in numbers that are rather underwhelming. In the 11 games, PBJ averaged 12.2 PPG on 34% shooting from the field, 5.8 RPG, and 1.5 assists. The most shocking stat of them all? He shot 26.6% from the 3PT line. That stat alone should tell you that Baldwin Jr. was not fully himself, since now in his small sample size of NBA games, the 3PT shot seems to be his calling card. Despite an overall disappointing freshman year playing under his father, PBJ declared for the NBA Draft, where he slid all the way to the end of the first round. Had he decided to stay for another year at the college level, he may have put himself in a position to be drafted in the lottery. On the contrary, with his injury history he could have gone in the other direction, and this was likely a factor in his decision to enter the draft when he did.
What PBJ Brings to the Warriors
Baldwin Jr. sets up for a 3pt shot (photo via: USA Today)
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has had a rather atypical rookie season for a 1st round pick, racking up numerous “did not play coach's decision” (DNP-CDs), as well as having numerous stints down with the Santa Cruz Warriors, the Warriors’ G-League affiliate. While he has had a very small sample size with the main club, Baldwin Jr. has shown us some of the strengths of his game, as well as some weaknesses. Let's take a look at what he brings to the team, and why he is worth being given a shot in the regular rotation.
1. One of the first things that you notice when you watch him play is the calmness and simplicity that he brings to the floor. Growing up as the “coach's son” you know that he always played the game the right way. Never trying to do anything too much, he seems to know his role on the floor, and more importantly, on this team. Being in the right spots at the right times, he seems to always be shot-ready, which leads to his greatest contribution, his shooting ability.
2. There are two words that come to mind when you see PBJ shoot the ball: pure and confident. His jumper seems almost “picture-perfect” in terms of shooting mechanics. Being 6’10”, he is able to get his shot off over any contest, making his jumper virtually unblockable. This has drawn comparisons to the jump shot of the Denver Nuggets’ Michael Porter Jr. and the Phoenix Suns’ Kevin Durant. In PBJ’s brief sample size in the NBA this season, he is currently tied with Yuta Watanabe for the best 3PT percentage in the entire league, at a whopping 47.5% on 27/57 attempts.
His shooting ability, however, provides more than just personal production. Being a knockdown perimeter threat to the defense unlocks so much more for the rest of the offense. Allowing spacing for guys like Jonathan Kuminga or Jordan Poole to slash into the paint, he would provide them better looks at the rim. He would also help guys like Draymond Green, where we just saw a great example of how opposing defenders play him. In the Warriors' latest game against the Los Angeles Lakers, we saw Anthony Davis significantly play off of him, being able to help off-ball. This would be less of a worry with PBJ on the floor.
3. While his size allows for an unstoppable jump shot, it also gives him the advantage in the post. Something we’ve seen flashes of, is if PBJ can establish good position in the low post, he effectively can have his defender at his mercy. By no means is he a dominant physical force, but with development and time, he should be able to become a reliable post player. Being able to finish around the rim, fade away or make a play out of the post, he should be able to find comfort down low just as he does around the perimeter.
Baldwin Jr. tries to stay in front of Rudy Gay (photo via:Blue Man Hoop)
On the defensive end is where Baldwin Jr. can look most to improve. At his size, he has the potential to be a more than serviceable defender. While he may never be an legit rim protector, his 7’1” wingspan should allow him to alter shots in the paint. As he comes into his NBA career, he can look to get stronger to be able to withhold some of the league's centers when Steve Kerr wants to use him as a “small ball 5.” Perimeter defense may never be his strong suit, as a quick first step is something that PBJ definitely lacks. So in terms of switchability with smaller guards, while it’s not there quite yet, it’s something that could develop in his game as he continues to play. He has displayed promising flashes this season where he has shown good distance management, which comes with his high IQ.
Baldwin Jr. has been buried at the bottom of Kerr’s rotation this year behind Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, and Anthony Lamb. Lamb has been the player who has struggled as of late, and would likely be the one who to drop in the rotation for PBJ to see more minutes. Kerr has been on the record explaining that it comes down to Lamb’s experience as the reason he gets more minutes. However, with his recent shooting slump (missing 16 of his last 20 3PT attempts), Kerr should plug PBJ in for some of those minutes. In addition, with Lamb being a two-way player, the Warriors’ front office is going to have to make a decision on him. March 1st is the deadline to add players to the playoff eligible roster, and with both Lamb and Ty Jerrome (the Dub’s other two-way player), they are only able to keep one. So with Baldwin Jr. being automatically on the playoff roster, getting him as many in-game reps as possible will benefit not only his game, but the team's overall success.
Cover photo via: NBC Sports