The Warriors currently sit at 29-29 exiting the All-Star break as they prepare to play the Lakers in Los Angeles on Thursday evening. Everything about this team is average right now, including their .500 record, 20th-ranked defense, and 12th-ranked offense. So, what tweaks can the Warriors make to salvage the season and climb the standings into a top 6 seed to avoid the play-in?
Feeding Wiggins
Offensively, there is one clear adjustment to be made: force feed the ball to Andrew Wiggins. It’s that simple. We got a glimpse of it right before the All-Star break in the Warriors first comfortable win in a while against the Washington Wizards. What made this performance by Wiggins so impressive was the amount of good looks around the rim he got, and how those looks allowed him to take the game over in the second half. Wiggins is not the type of player to take the initiative of making sure he gets a substantial number of post touches and drives each game. Instead, Wiggins is unselfish and plays within the flow of the game, which isn’t a bad thing, but for Golden State, his ability to generate “good” shots at the rim is severely needed.
Currently, the Warriors shoot the third most threes in the NBA per 100 possessions. Coupled with their torrid pace, they place atop the league in total attempts at 43.0 3PAs per game. Of course it’s desirable to be a potent three point shooting team, which the Warriors certainly are, however they have become overly reliant on the three ball. The Dubs rank last in free throws per game by a decent margin, which is concerning. Even last year, the Warriors ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in FTs per game, however they found a more reasonable balance of perimeter and interior scoring, while also having a defensive identity.
This year’s Warriors team doesn’t have an elite defense, so shooting a high volume of threes and the increased level of shooting variance that comes with that doesn’t lend itself to offensive consistency. If the three ball isn’t falling and getting to the basket or free throw line isn’t a significant part of a team’s offensive diet, fewer higher percentage looks are being taken, thus scoring droughts become a more common occurrence. This has borne itself out often, as the Warriors have had many late game collapses en route to losing games they should’ve won. Ultimately, basketball is about generating as many “good” shots while allowing as few “good” shots as possible to the opponent. The best shots are layups and free throws, followed by open threes. Increasing Wiggins’ drives and post-ups will result in better shot quality for the entire team, slightly fewer threes, and a better offensive process. Now, let’s take a look at two example clips from the second half of the Wizards game.
Wiggins receives a cross screen to establish a good position when he gets the ball. In both clips he takes a few dribbles and before turning over his shoulder to first get to the line and then convert a “baby hook”. After punishing the defense twice in a matter of minutes from this spot, Wiggins again receives the ball, recognizes the help sent his way, and whips the ball out to JaMychal Green for an open three.
Mixing in these Wiggins post touches and drives generates help, forcing defenses to rotate. If defenses don’t send help, that plays right into the Warriors hands as they're able to get even higher quality shots near the rim. Giving Wiggins the ball in the post can make the Warriors more consistent and efficient offensively. Furthermore, it will help Wiggins be more involved and engaged, which the Warriors need to be at their best. Scheduled post touches shouldn’t be reserved for just Wiggins though. In the second unit, Jonathan Kuminga could serve a similar role to pressure the rim and force defensive rotations.
Personnel Changes
As previously mentioned, the Warriors lack an identity this season. All great teams and true contenders have one, and right now the Dubs don’t. However, this is something the front office is actively trying to rectify, with the trade for Gary Payton II. The acquisition of Payton II at the deadline signaled the Warriors recognized a need to upgrade their on-ball perimeter defense. Unfortunately, Golden State seemed to not fully realize the severity of Payton II’s injury, as he is now slated to approximately miss the next two months. GP2 could still prove to play a key role for the team, but not until the final few weeks of the regular season or the playoffs, if Golden State gets in.
The Warriors point of attack (POA) perimeter defense has backslid this year, which no doubt is a product of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson’s heavy minutes. Poole has allowed too many easy drives, and Thompson has been lackluster executing and communicating switches, while both players have struggled to navigate and get over screens. These issues popping up once in a while are reasonable on any team, especially the Warriors, because they thrive at being connective as a team defensively to cover up some of these mistakes. However, the current Warriors team defense is over-tasked with cleaning up far more POA breakdowns than normal, putting an immense amount of stress on the team, and ultimately making it unrealistic for Golden State to be an elite defense. Being elite on the defensive end has been the Warriors identity during their dynasty, particularly during their non-KD “super team” championship years.
While the Warriors should do everything in their power to regain this defensive identity, another part of their identity has been missing too. This season, lineups with Draymond at center haven’t been successful. It’s ironic considering how the Warriors were the catalyst for small-ball becoming one of the biggest trends in the modern NBA. Despite this, Draymond at center just isn’t yielding positive results for whatever reason.
To avoid being forced into these lineups, a possible solution could be to add more size and sign a true backup big like DeMarcus Cousins. He would provide a second true center to the Warriors roster when they don’t want to go small in the second unit with Draymond at center. Like Gary Payton II, he would be another in-season addition who would transition well with less of a learning curve, having previously played for the team and in Kerr’s system. Outside of just being a viable backup center, Cousins would immediately be the Warriors largest player. Providing this size would not only be helpful on the glass, but also just give the Warriors a different look on the interior. Cousins is not an elite shot blocker, or even a good defender in any facet, but his size in the paint would make opponent rim attempts tougher. Lastly, Boogie served as the Nuggets backup big last year, so he faced reigning MVP Nikola Jokic in practice every day and may be better equipped to guard the Joker in a potential playoff matchup, as he understands his game and tendencies on a higher level.
Cousins would also provide a completely different dimension and skill set for the Warriors on the offensive end. His passing would fit in great with Kerr’s offensive system, as he would capitalize on off-ball action and make reads as well as any big on the roster. Additionally, his perimeter shooting would give Draymond a stretch big to play alongside – something the Warriors have been missing this season with the loss of Nemanja Bjelica. Finally, his skill in the post would make him a valuable post split operator who could get his when the opportunity presents itself. Further, Cousins would improve the Dubs ability to score around the basket and get to the free throw line, two areas where they currently struggle.
These small fixes can help the Warriors win a few extra games throughout the rest of the regular season and help them with playoff seeding, however I’m skeptical about how much more micro-level adjustments can do for the team. Ultimately, they will lean heavily upon their “championship DNA” and experience if they find themselves in the postseason, but that has never been enough. If the Warriors want to truly vault themselves into legitimate championship contention they must find their identity (what they’re elite at), and do so quickly.
Photo via: Forbes